السبت، 5 مارس 2011

Battle rages for key Libyan city

 

Battle rages for key Libyan city


It is not yet clear where the Arab revolts are heading. The ripples set off by the uprising on the streets of Tunis in January have yet to reach the shore, so to speak.
From Morocco to Muscat, Arab rulers are now getting the clear message that the status quo that has existed in their countries for years, even decades, is unacceptable to large numbers of their population.
Protests are at different stages in different countries - it would be wrong to think of this as one, single movement with a united opposition and a common agenda. But there are still common threads that run right across the region.

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Yes, it is about jobs and opportunities, food prices and corruption, but many - especially the well-educated urban young - want more than economic comfort. They want a political system that is not stifled by the dead hand of autocratic government.
So behind closed doors in gilded palaces and well-guarded mansions, the fundamental question being asked in the inner circles of government is - what can we give them and still stay in power?
When Tunisia and Egypt both drove their presidents from power in a short space of time the talk was all of the "domino effect" and the region was rife with speculation that autocratic Arab regimes would inevitably be toppled, one by one.
The only question, people said, was who would be next. We saw a number of hastily introduced concessions by rulers which amounted to panic measures to stave off a threat to their survival.
Yemen's president promised to stand down in 2013, Jordan's king sacked his cabinet, Algeria lifted its state of emergency and Saudi Arabia and Bahrain both announced lavish handouts of money. These are stop-gap measures, of course, not long-term solutions.
But what has certainly dampened expectations of swift and radical change are the events in Libya.
If Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and his family had been driven from power within days then the momentum of Tunis and Cairo would have been maintained.
But the Libyan regime, as we have seen this past week, has dug in and is fighting back against its opponents, using its superior firepower and extensive patronage.
Whether Col Gaddafi survives now for days, months or years, it is clear that overthrowing him is no pushover and will have cost many lives.
Brendan Simms, a professor of international relations history at Cambridge University, was quoted on Friday by Reuters as saying that "Libya is where the fire of revolution from Tunisia and Egypt could go out. The stakes are very high."
Let's take a brief look now at where the uprisings have got to, country by country.

 

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